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Latest GOP Debate Winners and Losers

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Courtesy of cbsnews.com
Photo: Courtesy of cbsnews.com

MILWAUKEE, WI – The top 8 Republican presidential candidates squared off Tuesday night (November 11th 2015) in the fourth GOP presidential debate.

Here’s who qualified for the debate, and where each candidate stands in the polls, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five recent national polls:

• Donald Trump, real-estate magnate.
• Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon.
• Marco Rubio, US senator from Florida.
• Jeb Bush, former Florida governor.
• Ted Cruz, US senator from Texas.
• Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett Packard CEO.
• Rand Paul, US senator from Kentucky.
• John Kasich, Ohio governor.

Unlike the other 3 debates, the candidates’ policies and clear individual plans filled up the prime time segment. The main focus was on the economy. The gathering in Milwaukee had the fewest candidates so far this year as just eight qualified for the main stage. Not only did the candidates draw distinctions on how they would jumpstart the economy, reform the tax code, and shrink government; but what also emerged was major divides within the GOP on immigration and foreign policy.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had another strong debate, as did Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, both of who are nipping at the heels of frontrunners Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the polls.

Trump received the first question on raising minimum wage and deftly handled it. He concluded that he was against it. He did not fare well the rest of the debate starting with his stance on immigration – build a wall and send 11 million people back who aren’t here legally. John Kasich clashed with him on it: “For the 11 million people, come on folks, we all know you can’t pick them up and ship them back across the border. It’s a silly argument. It’s not an adult argument.” In a bizarre turn of events, Trump pushed for Jeb Bush to be able to speak. But Bush didn’t take his side, and argued such large deportations also aren’t possible. “12 million illegal immigrants — to send them back 500,000 a month is just not possible, and it’s not embracing American values and it would tear communities apart,” he argued.

Carson had a stronger debate than in the past and he successfully tackled questions about his biography and views on the economy, but he still appeared highly uncomfortable and meandering when trying to talk about foreign policy and national security concerns.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was under pressure to turn in a better debate performance than his last, and he mostly delivered. While he may not have been the best on stage, the showing should still calm fears of nervous donors. He didn’t get in another losing spat with Rubio, but did have strong moments when he took on Trump over immigration and foreign policy.

Senator Rand Paul had a few memorable moments, including correcting Trump on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Trump said it would empower China. “It’s a deal that was designed for China to come in as they always do, through the back door, and totally take advantage of everyone,” explained Trump. “It’s 5,600 pages long, so complex that nobody’s read it.” Paul jumped in to point out China isn’t part of the deal… To Rand, it’s more of an issue of ceding to Obama, who is trying to push the deal through Congress.

An unexpected clash between Rubio and Paul was a spark as well. The Florida senator jumped on Paul for wanting to cut too much money from the defense budget: “I know that Rand is a committed isolationist. I’m not. I believe the world is a stronger and a better place when the United States is the strongest military power in the world.” Paul’s retort: “Marco, how is it conservative to add a trillion dollar expenditure for the federal government that you’re not paying for? How is it conservative to add a trillion dollars in military expenditures?”
Cruz jumped in, “You think defending this nation is expensive? Try not defending it, that’s a lot more expensive,” he said, backing Rubio, but tried to underscore that he would find a way to pay for it without adding to the deficit.

Carly Fiorina went into specifics on ways she would boost the economy, which went over well. Late into the debate she had a memorable exchange with Trump over negotiating with Vladimir Putin.

Probably the most up and down candidate at this debate was Ohio governor John Kasich who tried to take control of the debate by aggressively positioning himself as the moderate in the field. He defended his position on the economy and that he would bail out banks in the event of a potential financial collapse. His style helped him garner one of the highest amounts of speaking time.

For more debate commentary, tune in to The Crash Proof Retirement Show with Phil Cannella and Joann Small, airing Saturdays at 11am on Talk Radio 1210-AM, WPHT.

Market Watch: All Three Major Indexes Drop

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Wall Street suffered losses across the board as oil prices dropped and more Federal Reserve Bank presidents suggested the Fed might raise interest rates next month.  The price of a of crude oil plummeted to $41.75 per barrel, falling 2.8%.   San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said in an exclusive interview with USA Today:

“There’s a “very strong case” for the Fed to raise interest rates next month if the economy continues to improve and policymakers are confident that inflation will pick up. “Assuming the data are consistent with those (conditions), I think there’s a very strong case for starting the process of raising interest rates” at the Fed’s Dec. 15-16 meeting. The next natural step…is to start raising rates and to do that gradually.”

All three major averages are down more than 2% for the week so far. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 250 points. The Nasdaq composite fell more than 1 percent to end just above 5,000. The S&P 500 closed down 1.4%.

More on what some Fed bank presidents are saying about a possible interest rate hike from CNBC below.

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, 11/12/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17, 448.07 (-254.15/ -1.44%)

NASDAQ: 5,005.08 (-61.94 / -1.22%)

S&P 500: 2,045.97 (-29.03/ -1.40%)

Market Watch: Data Breach & Macy’s Stock

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With 6 weeks remaining in the holiday shopping season before Christmas, one of the traditional holiday retail giants revealed a disappointing earnings report. Things started to go bad for Macy’s after the retailer cut sales and profit forecasts, and posted a surprise drop in quarterly sales.  Macy’s stock stumbled, trading about 14% lower after briefly falling more than 15%, suffering its worst day since 2008. Macy’s stock is already down more than 25% year-to-date.  The company’s Chairman and CEO Terry Lundgren said:

“The company had a “tough quarter,”  highlighted a series of factors, including a slowdown in visits by international tourists who frequent many big-city Macy’s locations, and warmer weather in the Northeast that’s curtailing sales of winter apparel. We’re going to take markdowns. Consumers are going to have a field day, because we’re going to have lots of values out there, but we’re going to get rid of the inventory — have to do that before Christmas.”

The other big news of the day is  that U.S. banks and other financial institutions have suffered their largest ever data breach. U.S. officials in Manhattan confirmed the hack yesterday while bringing charges against 4 men for the theft of customer data of more than 100 million people.  According to Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan is among the banks that were hit. See more on the date breach from Bloomberg below.

Here are the final numbers from Wednesday, 11/11/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17, 702.22 (-55.99/ -0.32%)

NASDAQ: 5,067.02 (-16.22 / -0.32%)

S&P 500: 2,075.00 (-6.72 / -0.32%)

Market Watch: Stocks Mixed as Apple Struggles

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latestnewslink.com

The middle of the trading week was an up and down affair as stocks floundered for most of the day. A big bite was taken out of Apple as stock in the world’s biggest company slumped by as much as 3.5% before finishing down 3.15%.  According to foxbusiness.com:

Credit Suisse said Apple’s supply-chain orders have weakened recently in Asia, which could weigh on Apple’s shares for the “next few weeks/quarters.” Apple has lowered its component orders by as much as 10%, according to Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha. That points to “weak demand for the new iPhone 6s,” said Garcha. He lowered his estimate on how many iPhones Apple will build in the next calendar year to 222 million from 242 million, and reduced his calendar-year 2016 earnings per share estimates by 6%

Watch more on today’s market activity from CNBC below.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, 11/10/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17, 758.21 (+27.73/ +0.16%)

NASDAQ: 5,083.24 (-12.06 / -0.24%)

S&P 500: 2,081.72 (+3.14 / +0.15%)

Market Watch: Stocks Drop as Investors Ponder Rate Hike

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On the first trading day of the week investors seemed to be concerned about the very real possibility that the Fed may raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade when the FOMC meets for its two day policy session next month.  The CME Group reports that that the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike in December rose from about 58% to nearly 70%.

Meanwhile, A leading global policy organization says there are signs that a new global recession is a possibility. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development points to a slow-down in world commerce that could be a harbinger of things to come.

Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said:

“Trade figures are “troublesome” because the declining rates of trade seen this year “have, in the past, been associated with global recession. It projects “global trade growth at 2 percent this year, improving to 3.6 percent next year. In only 5 of the past 50 years has global trade grown at 2 percent or less, and each time has coincided with a world economic downturn.”

The Secretary-General of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) added that contrary to 2 years ago, when slow trade was blamed on advanced economies, now the blame is on emerging markets such as China.

“As China transitions from massive infrastructure investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services, commodity prices have fallen, hurting exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia. New figures released Monday in China highlighted the extent of the downturn: China’s imports fell by %18.8 percent in October from a year earlier, while exports shrank %6.9 percent.”

On July 24, 2015 CNBC’s Louisa Bojesen interviewed Angel Gurría about the state of the world economy. Watch video below.

Here are the final numbers from Monday, 11/9/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17, 730.48 (-179.851/ -1.00%)

NASDAQ: 5,095.30 (-51.82 / -1.01%)

S&P 500: 2,078.58 (-20.62 / -0.98%)

Market Watch: Fed Considers Rate Hike after Jobs Report

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Wall Street is now running a month and a half winning streak after finishing mixed today. The much anticipated jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for October far exceeded experts’ expectations as it showed the addition of 271,000 jobs, thoroughly surpassing expectations of about 180,000, with the unemployment rate dropping lower to 5 percent.  The encouraging news on employment increases the likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee will elect to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade, when it meets next month on December 15th & 16th.

Watch CNBC’s Rick Santelli talk about the Oct. jobs’ report below.

Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones told CNBC:

“I think (the report) does increase the chance the Fed hikes in December but of course there’s one more report before then and other data. I think investors should take this as good news. It’s a combination of we’ve seen stocks move up in the last five weeks and there’s likely to be some profit taking as people worry if the Fed does start hiking, conditions won’t be as favorable as they have been in the last five years.”

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard articulated to Reuters today:

“A very good U.S. jobs report for October on top of faster than expected progress over the last year means the U.S. economy is effectively at full employment.”

Here are the final numbers from Friday, 11/6/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,910.27 (+46.84/ +0.26%)

NASDAQ: 5,147.12 (+19.38 / +0.38%)

S&P 500: 2,099.20 (-0.73 / -0.03%)

Market Watch: Stocks Fade Ahead of Friday’s Job’s Report

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Despite a jump in Facebook stock of 5% due to better than expected earnings, the markets fizzled ahead of tomorrow’s important unemployment report.  Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth surmised to CNBC:

“I think people are just a little leery of tomorrow’s employment report. It looks like the Federal Reserve is probably going to have to move on interest rates in December. At least that’s the indication. They told us they’re going to rely on the data and the data doesn’t seem to support a rate increase.”

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, told CNBC that he’s warning clients that the chances of an economic recession are growing. Watch video below.

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, 11/5/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,863.43 (-4.15/ -0.02%)

NASDAQ: 5,127.74 (-14.74 / -0.29%)

S&P 500: 2,099.93(-2.38 / -0.11%)

Market Watch: Yellen says Rate Hike is “Live Possibility”

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Stocks suffered a mid-week drop in part,  due to a decline in energy stocks and increased confidence in the possibility of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen said this morning that the U.S. economy is performing well and a December rate hike is a “live possibility,” depending on the data, but that “no decision at all has been made on that.”

Watch Yellen’s testimony below.

Yellen’s comments today largely repeated the Fed’s statement after a meeting last week that said the central bank will act if the economy and labor market continue to improve. The Fed has not raised its benchmark rate in nearly a decade and it has been near zero since the 2008 financial crisis.

Regarding regulation on big investment banks Yellen said:

“Large banks that teetered during the 2008 financial crisis are now more stable as a result of new capital and liquidity requirements, as well as Fed tests of their ability to withstand market turmoil, but the biggest banks continue to have substantial compliance and risk management issues that have undermined confidence in their risk management and controls and could have implications for financial stability.”

Meantime, CNBC Financial Editor Jeff Cox contemplates the real reasons why the Fed might raise interest rates. Watch below.

Here are the final numbers from Wednesday, 11/4/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,867.58 (-50.57/ -0.28%)

NASDAQ: 5,142.48 (-02.65/ -0.05%)

S&P 500: 2,102.31 (-7.48 / -0.35%)

Market Watch: Energy & Tech Stocks Lead to Gains

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Big gains in the energy and technology sectors helped push all three major indices to higher levels on Wall St. Global oil prices surged due to a report on heating oil and gasoline inventories will show a decline, while the prospect of falling natural gas shale production also added to fuel gains. Oil briefly traded more than 4 percent higher before settling up $1.76, or 3.81 percent, at $47.90 a barrel. The focus today was on factory orders from the Commerce Department, which fell for the second-straight month, and last month’s auto sales. Shares of companies that make chips for Apple also fell Tuesday on a report from Pacific Crest citing weak iPhone sales. Investors will await Friday’s all-important October jobs report. Tomorrow, the Chair of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee Janet Yellen will talk about bank regulation at 10:00 a.m. on Capitol Hill.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, 11/3/15 on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17, 918.15 (+89.39/ +0.50%)

NASDAQ: 5,145.14 (+17.98/ +0.35%)

S&P 500: 2,104.05 (+5.74 / +0.27%)

 

 

Mainstream Media Loses Big in GOP Debate

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Photo Credit: ABC News

The top 10 Republican presidential candidates squared off Wednesday night (October 28, 2015) in Boulder Colorado, in the third GOP presidential debate.

The 10 GOP candidates, who qualified for the debate, did so in accordance to how they stand in the polls, according to the Real Clear Politics average of five recent national polls: The candidates were:

• Donald Trump, real-estate magnate.
• Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon.
• Marco Rubio, US senator from Florida.
• Jeb Bush, former Florida governor.
• Ted Cruz, US senator from Texas.
• Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett Packard CEO.
• Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor.
• Rand Paul, US senator from Kentucky.
• John Kasich, Ohio governor.
• Chris Christie, New Jersey governor.

The debate started at the University of Colorado with John Kasich being critical of Carson and Trump as potential occupants of the Oval Office.

Kasich said: “My great concern is that we are on the verge, perhaps, of picking someone who cannot do this job,” he charged, adding, “We need somebody who can lead.”

Donald Trump held his own despite a slide to No. 2 in some of the most recent tests both nationally and in Iowa. He delivered his stock lines about taxes, immigration and badly negotiated deals on trade and foreign relations.

The new leader in some polls, Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, had less speaking time than almost any of the other candidates, and when he had the spotlight he did little to hold it. He seemed unsure of his footing at times when describing his tax rate plan and other economic matters.

The standout performer in the Sept. 16 debate, Carly Fiorina, managed to get more speaking time than any of her rivals — in part, by resisting the moderators. While she came across as self-assured and offered one of her best defenses of leadership at Hewlett-Packard a decade ago, Fiorina did not have a memorable exchange with Trump or any of the candidates.

The featured performer of the night was Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida who, at 44, is the youngest contestant in the field. Rubio became the debate’s focus largely because of tough questions from the CNBC moderators that he deftly turned into recitations of his talking points.

When other rivals tried to probe the same vulnerabilities, Rubio was quickly able to flip the polarity and deliver a put down in response.

Case in point: when Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor sometimes described as Rubio’s mentor, criticized Rubio, his response was “The only reason why you’re doing it now is because we’re running for the same position and someone has convinced you that attacking me is going to help you.”

Bush was not able to establish much momentum after that, finishing near the bottom of the list in speaking time. It was his third flat performance in the debate series and the most damaging in its timing. Recently Bush has fired members of his advisory circle and has cut back in spending. He has also launched a new marketing campaign slogan & tour: “Jeb Can Fix It”, invoking former U.S. president Abraham Lincoln, whom Bush said would have faced the same challenges Bush faces today.

Rubio, by stark contrast, was both sharp and focused with a cutting remark that showed his charming aside. Talking about a program for older people, Rubio beamed boyishly as he said, “I’d never vote for anything that would hurt my mom.”

Also acquitting themselves well were his Senate colleague, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Chris Christie, the oft-embattled governor of New Jersey. Christie’s shot at the CNBC moderators started a trend. “Even in New Jersey what you’re doing would be called rude,” said Christie, referring to CNBC moderator John Harwood.

The debate’s largest spark came when Ted Cruz fielded a typically combative question from one of the CNBC moderators and hit it out of the park. “The questions that have been asked so far in this debate illustrate why the American people don’t trust the media,” Cruz said. He added: “This is not a cage match. And, you look at the questions — ‘Donald Trump, are you a comic-book villain?’ ‘Ben Carson, can you do math?’ ‘John Kasich, will you insult two people over here?’ ‘Marco Rubio, why don’t you resign?’ ‘Jeb Bush, why have your numbers fallen?”

Carson took the opportunity to push back on the CNBC journalists. When Carl Quintanilla asked about Carson’s association with a controversial maker of nutritional supplements, Carson flatly denied any involvement and called the assertion “pure propaganda.”

Several of the other Republican candidates tried to get in on the crowd’s appetite for media criticism before the evening was over. Their staffs were also complaining about the in-your-face tone of the CNBC crew. After the debate, some of campaign managers talked about renegotiating the terms of the remaining debates.

Rubio, Cruz and Christie seemed to be the ones who improved their standing as a result of this debate.

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