Market Watch: Is the “Black Swan” coming?


It was a mixed day on Wall Street but perhaps more alarming was a report by world renowned French bank- Societe Generale.  The bank released its quarterly report that included concerns about the possibility of so-called “black swan” events that could harshly disrupt global economies.

“Risks to the world economy remain to the downside and include sharply weaker global growth and a sudden change to expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.”

The term “black swan” is a metaphor for “surprise actions” that severely affect the world.

The bank forecasts these top economic risks, & how likely they are to happen:

  1. 40% chance of a “world recession due to uncertainty in the E.U.”
  2. 30% chance of an “economic crash in China”
  3. 25% chance of a “severe change in the Fed’s expectations”
  4. 20% chance of a “Sharply weaker global growth”

Read more here.  See more below.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, May 31st on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,787.13  (-86.09 / -0.48%)

NASDAQ: 4,948.06 (+14.55/ +0.29%)

S&P 500: 2,096.95  (-2.11/ -0.10%)