Market Watch: Morgan-Stanley Increases Likelihood of Recession


On the first trading day of the week came a report from investment banking giant Morgan-Stanley that it has increased it’s probability that a recession will hit the global economy within the next year from 20 percent to 30 percent. Read more from CNBC here.

Among Morgan-Stanley’s list of chief economic & political concerns which appeared on

* Central banks losing control of domestic financial conditions
* Volatile international capital flows
* The Middle East conflict
* The European refugee crisis
* The possibility of Britain leaving the Eurozone
* Impeachment scandal in Brazil

Morgan Stanley economist Elga Bartsch, who led a team of economists for Morgan-Stanley’s report was quoted by CNBC as saying:

“While we don’t believe that a global recession is likely this year, the declining impact of lower oil prices and easier monetary policy on growth starts to worry us. Given the low-growth environment, the global economy remained vulnerable to shocks. These could include a loss of control of financial conditions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan, and volatile international capital flows to emerging markets, particularly China. Then there are geopolitical risks due to the conflict in the Middle East and the inflows of refugees in Europe and Turkey.”

Elga Bartsch is Morgan Stanley’s Chief European Economist. She is an expert in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and was recently voted one of the hundred most influential women in European finance.

Here are the final numbers from Monday, 3/14/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,229.13 (+15.82/ +0.09 %)

NASDAQ: 4,750.28  (+1.81 / +0.04 %)

S&P 500: 2,019.64  (-2.55 / -0.13 %)