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Market Watch: Wall Street’s win streak ends

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Stocks floundered as Wall Street’s three day winning streak ended.  The financial sector was down as was the price of oil.  Oil closed below yesterday’s high of $51- the highest level in nearly a year.

Watch more on today’s financial activity from CNBC’s Bob Pisani & Art Cashin-Director of Floor Operations for UBS.

Meanwhile, they’re getting set to vote in the U.K. on June 23rd to determine whether Britain should leave the European Union (the so-called Brexit) In advance of the vote in less than two weeks European stocks were off nearly 1% or more today, with the German DAX falling 1.25% in its worst day since mid-May.

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, June 9th on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,985.19  (-18.86 / -0.11%)

NASDAQ: 4,958.62 (-16.03/ -0.32%)

S&P 500: 2,115.48  (-3.64/ -0.17%)

Market Watch: Most Unemployed Have “Completely Given Up” Looking for a Job

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Stocks showed modest gains today as the market extended its winning streak to 3 in a row. The Dow closed above 18,000 for the first time since April.  The string of positive gains on Wall Street has come as a bit of a surprise to Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group who told CNBC today:

“Maybe it’s the rise in oil prices, but I don’t have any specific rational reason. The underlying story that’s being ignored is the continued reduction in growth and the decline in earnings.”

What adds to the perplexing situation on Wall St. are the results of a new Harris Poll of unemployed Americans.  The poll released today stated:

Nearly half of unemployed Americans have quit looking for work, and the numbers are even worse for the long-term jobless.  Some 59 percent of those who have been out of work for two years or more say they have stopped looking for work.  Overall, 43 percent of the jobless said they have given up.

These figures reflect very poorly on the employment environment in America.

Bob Funk-the CEO of job placement service-Express Employment Professionals, (which helped produce the jobless survey with Harris polling services) said in a statement:

“It’s frightening to see this many people who could work say they have given up. This is a tale of two economies. “

See more below.

According to CNBC:

The results of the Harris Poll of Unemployed Americans come just a few days after a government report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in May, but the drop came primarily because of a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. The number of people of all ages whom the government considers “not in the labor force” swelled by 664,000 to a record 94.7 million Americans, according to Labor Department data.

Here are the final numbers from Wednesday, June 8th on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 18,005.05  (+66.77 / +0.37%)

NASDAQ: 4,974.64 (+12.89/ +0.26%)

S&P 500: 2,119.12  (+6.99/ +0.33%)

Market Watch: Oil hits highest mark since last summer

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Energy stole much of the focus today as the price of oil closed above $50 a barrel for the first time since last July.  That helped the energy sector gain nearly 2% but the bio-tech division was down 2.5%. Only the NASDAQ finished in the red.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at its highest since November 3, 2015.Today it was trading at levels not seen since last summer, while the Dow danced around the psychologically significant 18,000 mark.

Meanwhile a June interest rate hike, thought to be seriously considered only a few weeks ago by the Fed, now has just a 2 percent chance, according to the CME’s Fed tracker. July has a slightly better chance, with odds increasing through the year.  See more form CNBC below.

Meantime, according to a survey conducted by Willis Towers Watson, about one in four U.S. workers expects to keep working through age 70,  and 25% of Americans age 50 and older surveyed in March by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research said they never plan to retire.  The #1 reason?  “Financial needs” as the “retirement age” keeps getting pushed back later and later in life.

Read more here.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, June 7th on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,938.28  (+17.95 / +0.10%)

NASDAQ: 4,961.75 (-6.96/ -0.15%)

S&P 500: 2,112.13  (+2.72/ +0.13%)

Market Watch: Despite Jobs Report Yellen Believes Hike’s Imminent

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Janet Yellen, President Obama's nominee to succeed Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, smiles as she finishes testifying at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington. A Senate panel on Thursday advanced Yellen's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, setting up a final vote in the full Senate after lawmakers return from a two-week Thanksgiving break. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Despite the fact that only a paltry 38,000 jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in May and that the current U.S. economy continues to show signs of not being able to support an interest rate hike at this time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen today signaled that we may still be in for not one, but perhaps two more interest rate increases this year.

At their meeting in March , the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hinted that two rate hikes are likely this year and Yellen’s comments today at the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia show that her mind hasn’t changed since then.  In her prepared remarks Yellen said:

“Next week, concurrent with our policy meeting, the FOMC participants will release a new set of economic projections. Those could, of course, differ from the previous set of such projections in March. But speaking for myself, although the economy recently has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces, I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones.”

Watch more below.

Four times a year the FOMC puts out its Summary of Economic Projections, which is are reviews from of each voting Federal Reserve Bank president as to where he or she believes the economy is headed and what the Fed’s interest rate target might be over the foreseeable future.

See more of Janet Yellen’s comments in Philadelphia todaybelow.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest level for 2016 as energy had it’s best day since April.

Here are the final numbers from Monday, June 6th on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17920.33  (+113.27 / +0.64%)

NASDAQ: 4,968.71 (+26.20/ +0.53%)

S&P 500: 2,109.41  (+10.28/ +0.49%)

Market Watch: Bill Gross says “Go to Mars” for better returns

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Entering the final trading day of the week, the Dow had risen over 400 points during the three days prior, but today the winning streak ended.  Stocks finished down across the board following the release of the May jobs report. There had been a great deal of discussion recently that the Fed would seriously considering raising interest rates after an expected solid employment report for May. The jobs report, however was not stellar.  Expectations for a summer rate hike fell after the Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls grew by just 38,000 in May; the worst monthly jobs growth in five years.

What does this mean for the market?  Watch below.

Meanwhile, “bond-king” Bill Gross, manager of the Janus Capital Unconstrained Bond Fund, had some bad news for investors when he appeared on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.”

Gross contended that:

“Bond and stock returns realized in the last 40 years are “a grey if not black swan event that cannot be repeated.” Investors should not expect 7 percent returns on bonds or returns in the high single digits or double digits on stocks. The markets are entirely different and it would pay to travel to Mars as opposed to stay on Earth, because the returns here are very, very low.”

Gross added:

“Investors should “basically go the other way” by holding liquid cash…they should not buy corporate bonds and resist buying high-yield bonds or riskier stocks.”

Watch Bill Gross’ interview on CNBC below.

Here are the final numbers from Friday, June 3rd on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,807.06  (-31.50 / -0.18%)

NASDAQ: 4,942.52 (-28.85/ -0.58%)

S&P 500: 2,099.13  (-6.13/ -0.29%)

Market Watch: Economists give candidates “F”

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With the looming, monthly jobs report due out tomorrow, the market took a wait & see approach today with moderate gains.  The healthcare sector saw the most advances as the S&P 500 closed above the 2,100 level for the first time since April.

Many investors on Wall Street are also taking the same wait & see approach until after the U.S. Presidential election in November.

But according to two dozen economists surveyed by Bankrate.com, all three of the major Presidential candidates’ economic plans are:

“Half-baked, and that there is a general lack of attention to serious economic debate during the campaign.”

Half of the twenty four economists surveyed gave the field of Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump a grade of “F,” with most of the other economists giving the the candidate group a “D.”

According to Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate:

“There was kind of a universal observation that the political candidates are not being pressed on economic issues sufficiently. When we try to measure financial literacy or economic literacy, the U.S. isn’t at the top of the list. People are looking for a Twitter-version solution of things instead of thinking about well thought-out plans. There still may be plenty of time for these solutions to be presented, but it doesn’t feel that any of these solutions are as thoughtful and elegant as we’d like to see.”

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, June 2nd on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,838.56  (+48.89 / +0.27%)

NASDAQ: 4,971.36 (+19.11/ +0.39%)

S&P 500: 2,105.26  (+5.93/ +0.28%)

Market Watch: Bond King says stimulus losing effectiveness

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The first trading day in June was highlighted by a recovery in oil prices and an unexpected boost in manufacturing which led to modest gains on Wall Street.

However, bond behemoth Pimco stated in its latest projections today that the stimulus program undertaken by the U.S. Central Bank is “losing its effectiveness and creating a potential land mine for investors.”

Pimco strategists said in a report:

“While there are myriad uncertainties, there is no doubt that a global disruption of our baseline scenario would have serious repercussions for growth, inflation and financial markets. The risks are uncertain, but they are real, and active investors can aim to put a price on them.”

See more on current global and U.S. economic concerns below.

Here are the final numbers from Wednesday, June 1st on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,789.67  (+2.47 / +0.01%)

NASDAQ: 4,952.25 (+4.20/ +0.08%)

S&P 500: 2,099.33  (+2.37/ +0.11%)

Market Watch: Is the “Black Swan” coming?

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It was a mixed day on Wall Street but perhaps more alarming was a report by world renowned French bank- Societe Generale.  The bank released its quarterly report that included concerns about the possibility of so-called “black swan” events that could harshly disrupt global economies.

“Risks to the world economy remain to the downside and include sharply weaker global growth and a sudden change to expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.”

The term “black swan” is a metaphor for “surprise actions” that severely affect the world.

The bank forecasts these top economic risks, & how likely they are to happen:

  1. 40% chance of a “world recession due to uncertainty in the E.U.”
  2. 30% chance of an “economic crash in China”
  3. 25% chance of a “severe change in the Fed’s expectations”
  4. 20% chance of a “Sharply weaker global growth”

Read more here.  See more below.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, May 31st on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,787.13  (-86.09 / -0.48%)

NASDAQ: 4,948.06 (+14.55/ +0.29%)

S&P 500: 2,096.95  (-2.11/ -0.10%)

Market Watch: When Yellen Talks…Wall Street Listens

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On the final day of the trading week before the long, Memorial Day holiday weekend, most eyes were once again on Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen participated in a “conversation” about interest rates at Harvard University with Gregory Mankiw, an economics professor. She was one of the featured speakers at Harvard’s Radcliffe Day, an event that also featured Yellen’s predecessor at the Fed and Harvard alumnus Ben Bernanke.

During her comments at Harvard, Yellen said that an interest rate hike in the next few months would probably be appropriate if economic data improves.

“It’s appropriate, and I’ve said this in the past, I think for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time and probably in the coming months, such a move would be appropriate.”

Yellen’s comments had an immediate negative effect on the markets before they rebounded.  The S&P 500 posted its best week since March.

See more from Yellen’s comments at Harvard today.

The Radcliffe Medal is presented each year to an individual who has had a “transformative” impact on society.

Also today, the National Bureau of Statistics said that China reported a slowdown in industrial profits of 4.2% in April versus 11.1% over the same one year period last year.

Here are the final numbers from Friday, May 27th on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,873.22  (+44.93 / +0.25%)

NASDAQ: 4,933.50 (+31.74/ +0.65%)

S&P 500: 2,099.06  (+8.96/ +0.43%)

Market Watch: Everyday Investors Don’t Like this Market

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A new survey released today by the American Association of Individual Investors shows less than 18% of everyday American investors are interested in investing on the stock market. That represents the basement level of support for stocks since April 2005 and drastically lower from l2014 when 58% of individual investors said they were optimistic about the stock market.

Why?

  • The forthcoming U.S. Presidential election in November is making investors nervous.
  • The global economy is barely growing.
  • Rising political risks at home and abroad with Britain set to vote on whether to leave the E.U.
  • The Federal Reserve is talking about lifting  interest rates.

The recent upward momentum in the markets has many Fed-observers believing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is seriously considering raising interest rates in June and that the economy is ready for another quarter basis point increase. James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank said today that the tight U.S. labor market could lead to a rate hike next month.

The question remains however: Can stocks thrive if there is a rate hike in June and or July? One analyst says the U.S. stock market could experience a 20% correction if the Fed decides to raise rates. See more from CNBC’s “Trading Nation” below.

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, May 25th on Wall Street:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,828.29  (-23.22 / -0.13%)

NASDAQ: 4,901.77 (+6.99/ +0.14%)

S&P 500: 2,090.10  (-0.44/ -0.02%)

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