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Market Watch: Stocks Surge with Dow Up for the Year

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Oil prices surged and so did the stock market as the Dow Jones Industrial average rose into positive territory for the first time in 2016.   FedEx, Goldman Sachs and Boeing were among the big winners, while oil closed above $40 a barrel for the first time since December 3, 2016.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank told CNBC:

“I think it’s (the market’s gains) probably the recognition the Fed is responding to the weaker environment and they’re not going to tighten as quickly.” Still, he remained cautious on the recent rally given historically high valuations in the S&P 500. The recovery year-to-date “is just a reminder of how expensive the market is,” he said. “When the market falls during earnings season it just shows fundamentals just can’t support prices.”

 Today’s movement on the market may be evidence that investors do not believe the “Fed will raise interest rates again for the rest of 2016.

See more below.

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, 3/17/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,481.49 (+155.73/ +0.90 %)

NASDAQ: 4,774.98  (+11.02/ +0.23 %)

S&P 500: 2,040.59  (+13.37/ +0.66 %)

Market Watch: Fed Holds Steady-Lowers Expectations

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The big news of the day: The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the status quo on interest rates.  Following its 2 day, closed door policy meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen announced that the Fed had pulled back on its prediction of 4 rate hikes this year, and instead believes there will be only 2 interest rate increases in 2016. Last December the U.S. central bank projected four rate hikes in 2016. They’ve also cut expectations for economic growth and inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now projects just two rate hikes next year.

According to CNBC:

The current interest rate target is 0.25 to 0.5 percent, and Fed officials back in December had expected the upper level to rise to 1.4 percent by year’s end. With the new projections, the FOMC now sees just a 0.9 percent funds rate in 2016 and a 1.9 percent level by the end of 2017, both reflecting cuts of half a percentage point.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen also said that “negative interest rates in U.S. banks was not an active discussion” within the Federal Open Market Committee.  After today’s announcement from the Fed, oil prices rose 5.8 percent and settled up $2.12, to $38.46 a barrel. Watch more below:

Here are the final numbers from Wednesday, 3/16/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,325.76 (+74.23/ +0.43 %)

NASDAQ: 4,763.97  (+35.30 / +0.75 %)

S&P 500: 2,027.22  (+11.29/ +0.56 %)

Market Watch: Stocks Flat Ahead of Fed Comments tomorrow

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The “Ides of March” did not bode well for Julius Caesar, and as for the stock market today- March 15th was fairly uneventful ahead of tomorrow’s statement from the Fed.  The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting today and speculation is that the F.O.M.C will leave short-term interest rates unchanged for now but according to foxbusiness.com:

  “A rate hike is not too far off as long as the job market and inflation continue to improve. U.S. retail sales in January were weaker than thought, renewing worries over domestic growth prospects, even as the Bank of Japan offered a gloomier outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy without immediately adding to stimulus.”

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will discuss the results of the Fed’s two day policy session tomorrow afternoon at 2pm.  Read more from CNN-Money.

Meantime, for many people in or near retired years, worrying about money is not good for overall health.  It’s no secret that too much stress can be harmful. A recent survey by the American Psychological Association found money is a top cause of stress for Americans and a major source of conflict in their relationships.  See more from CNBC below.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, 3/15/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,251.53 (+22.40/ +0.13 %)

NASDAQ: 4,728.67  (-21.61 / -0.45 %)

S&P 500: 2,015.93  (-3.71/ -0.18 %)

Market Watch: Morgan-Stanley Increases Likelihood of Recession

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On the first trading day of the week came a report from investment banking giant Morgan-Stanley that it has increased it’s probability that a recession will hit the global economy within the next year from 20 percent to 30 percent. Read more from CNBC here.

Among Morgan-Stanley’s list of chief economic & political concerns which appeared on CNBC.com:

* Central banks losing control of domestic financial conditions
* Volatile international capital flows
* The Middle East conflict
* The European refugee crisis
* The possibility of Britain leaving the Eurozone
* Impeachment scandal in Brazil

Morgan Stanley economist Elga Bartsch, who led a team of economists for Morgan-Stanley’s report was quoted by CNBC as saying:

“While we don’t believe that a global recession is likely this year, the declining impact of lower oil prices and easier monetary policy on growth starts to worry us. Given the low-growth environment, the global economy remained vulnerable to shocks. These could include a loss of control of financial conditions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan, and volatile international capital flows to emerging markets, particularly China. Then there are geopolitical risks due to the conflict in the Middle East and the inflows of refugees in Europe and Turkey.”

Elga Bartsch is Morgan Stanley’s Chief European Economist. She is an expert in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and was recently voted one of the hundred most influential women in European finance.

Here are the final numbers from Monday, 3/14/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,229.13 (+15.82/ +0.09 %)

NASDAQ: 4,750.28  (+1.81 / +0.04 %)

S&P 500: 2,019.64  (-2.55 / -0.13 %)

Market Watch: Stocks end week on up note

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A gradual increase in the price of oil over the past 4 weeks has helped the stock market pick-up some decent gains. U.S. crude oil settled up 66 cents, or 1.74 percent, at $38.50 a barrel. Oil is now up 10% in a month.  Another report says that the price of oil may have bottomed out. Read more here.
Today’s gain were also due in part to investors taking a more positive view of yesterday’s announcement by the European Central Bank that it will take additional stimulus measures.

Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations for UBS  talked to CNBC about today’s market movement.

Even though recently the markets have shown some gains, Americans have really been racking up the credit card debt.  In fact new figures show that total U.S. credit card debt is now close to $1 billion dollars. See more below.

Here are the final numbers from Friday, 3/11/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,213.31 (+218.18/ +1.28 %)

NASDAQ: 4,748.48  (+86.31 / +1.85 %)

S&P 500: 2,022.19  (+32.62 / +1.64 %)

Market Watch: Markets Mixed after Moves by ECB

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Stocks wavered today following word from the European Central Bank that the ECB will take a number of steps to try and strengthen Europe’s economy. Chief among them: Cutting its main interest rates and expanding its massive bond-buying program.

ECB president Mario Draghi said-

“The outlook for economic growth in the euro zone had been revised slightly down — mainly reflecting the weakened outlook for the world economy — but added that he did not anticipate needing to reduce rates further.”

The euro zone’s 19 countries are now seen posting average growth of 1.4 percent in 2016, rather than the 1.7 percent forecast in December. More on the ECB’s decision today from CNBC’s Bob Pisani below.

What are the biggest things to take away from today’s moves by the European Central Bank?  Check out marketwatch.com.

Here are the final numbers from Thursday, 3/10/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16,995.13 (-5.23 / -0.03 %)

NASDAQ: 4,662.13  (-12.22 / -0.26 %)

S&P 500: 1,989.57  (+0.31 / +0.02 %)

Market Watch: Stocks Flat in Advance of Thurs. ECB Mtg.

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The markets spent much of the day treading water with tomorrow’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) looming.  The President of the E.C.B- Mario Draghi could possibly announce another round 0f stimulus measures, which could include more asset purchases and maybe another cut to the already negative interest rate.

Marketwatch.com points to 5 things that should be watched at tomorrow’s ECB meeting:

1. The rate decision
2. Two-tiered deposit system and/or cheap loans
3. Changes to Quantitative easing
4. New staff projections
5. Will meeting be another disappointment?

Read details here.

Meantime, the United States is just under eight months away from the next Presidential election which is Tuesday, November 8, 2016.  Wall Street is wondering: Which person would be better for the stock market if elected: Hillary Clinton or Donald TrumpDavid Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Asset Management gave his opinion to CNBC’s “Halftime Report.”  Watch below.

Here are the final numbers from Wednesday, 3/9/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,000.36 (+36.26 / +0.21 %)

NASDAQ: 4,674.38  (+25.55 / +0.55 %)

S&P 500: 1,989.26  (+10.00 / +0.51 %)

Market Watch: Dow’s Win Streak Ends

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The Dow Jones Industrial average saw its five day winning streak come to an end today as China was back in the news, which didn’t bode well for Wall Street. Weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data increased investor worry about international economic growth.

Ben Pace, chief investment officer at HPM Partners said:

“I think a little bit of profit-taking after the run-up that we’ve seen. We’re in a bit of a news vacuum this week. Earnings are all done. China trade data was shockingly bad. … The question keeps coming out. How bad is the slowdown in China?”

Also putting a drag on the market today was oil, which settled down $1.40, or 3.7% to close at $36.50 a barrel after analysts from Goldman Sachs said the the recent rise in oil prices was unsustainable and U.S. stockpiles could increase.

According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, businesses are reporting stronger profits but  half of of the small businesses said they came up short with financing over the past year.  That means businesses received smaller loans than they had asked for from banks, indicating tough lending conditions still exit in the business world.

Here are the final numbers from Tuesday, 3/8/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16,964.10 (-109.85 / -0.64 %)

NASDAQ: 4,648.83  (-59.43 / -1.26 %)

S&P 500: 1,979.26  (-22.50 / -1.12 %)

Market Watch: Dow Extends Win Streak & Oil Tops $40

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It was a relatively flat beginning to the start of the trading week, although the Dow did extend its win streak to 5 sessions in a row & The S&P topped 2,000. Energy stocks were up more than 1.5 percent as oil rose above $40 a barrel for the first time in 2016.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets again next week and one of the big questions investors are pondering is when will the Fed make its next move on interest rates? Two Federal Reserve bank officials say that inflation is slowly getting closer to where the Fed would like to see it, and Fed governor Lael Brainard asked for calm is determining when rates would increase again because it’s possible that inflation and U.S. economic activity will fall.

Watch more from CNBC below.

Meantime, the Bank for International Settlements, which is an international company owned by central banks, that serves as a “bank” for central banks, has warned that increasing global debt levels, stagnant growth and the prospect of long-term negative interest rates are issues that are not going to go away anytime soon. Read more here.

Here are the final numbers from Monday, 3/7/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,073.95 (+67.18 / +0.40 %)

NASDAQ: 4,708.25  (-8.77 / -0.19 %)

S&P 500: 2,001.76  (+1.77 / +0.09 %)

Market Watch: Wall Street Rises on Jobs & Oil

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An increase in the number of jobs and a rise in the price of oil helped lift the markets today. The Dow closed at a 2 month high as it broke through the 17,000 barrier and the S&P 500 hit the 2,000 mark.  For the week- oil finished up 9.5%. The February job’s report showed hiring was stronger than expected in February. There were 242,000 jobs added in February, far better than the 190,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9 percent. However hourly earnings fell by 3 cents to $25.35, after rising by 12 cents in January. Wages were up 2.2% which is weaker than the 2.5% gain in January.

The Volatility Index (VIX) which measures fear on the market fear, fell today to its lowest level this year, but what does that really mean? Watch below.

Here are the final numbers from Friday, 3/4/16 on Wall Street

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,006.77 (+62.87 / +0.37 %)

NASDAQ: 4,717.02  (+9.60 / +0.20 %)

S&P 500: 1,999.99  (+6.59 / +0.33 %)

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