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Market Watch: Is the Bear Done Hibernating?

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And so the story goes… The stock market thrived for five years and finished at record heights in 2013, just to begin a familiar trend back down immediately following its bull market peak. Or at least that is what is running through the minds of investors as we come back from one of the worst trading weeks in over a year.

Many of the industry’s most influential characters have been expecting a correction to come this year, including some of the economists and experts featured in RMI’s recent publications. So far January’s stock market numbers have shown that the proof is in the pudding. We mean that quite literally, as Kraft Foods, which owns the popular pudding brand Jello, has seen a near 2% drop in share prices so far this year.

However Kraft is among some of the more resilient big name stocks this year, as companies like Xerox, Yahoo and Best Buy are having a nightmare start to the New Year, each seeing double digit percentage drops in share prices.

Today’s market fluctuations proved to be a small example of the unsteadiness of the 2014 market, as stocks opened with some positive momentum just to take a hard plunge back down mid-day following more poor earnings reports. Stocks managed a slow crawl back but still ended up in the red at the closing bell.

The Dow Jones finished at 15,837.88 (-0.26%)

The S&P 500  finished at 1,781.56 (-0.49%)

The Nasdaq finished at 4,083.61 (-1.08%)

 

Today was especially tough on tech stocks, including the leading social media companies like Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn, which all saw significant losses during trading hours. Investors will continue to bite their nails all week long, as Wall Street awaits a bundle of reports during the week that will likely have an impact on market trading. At the forefront of the anticipated news for this week is from the Federal Reserve, which is set to speak on Wednesday and will be bringing news concerning the future of Quantitative Easing, the Federal stimulus program that is suspected to have been fueling this 5 year bull market.

The Fed is widely expected to announce further cuts to the stimulus program, which was originally pumping $85 billion a month into Wall Street before being dropped to $75 billion this month. Wall Street is finding it tough to view the glass half full when it comes to Quantitative Easing. On one hand, the Fed can announce further cuts to the program, which means investors will face a market that is $10 less supported by stimulus. On the other hand, the Fed decides not to cut back, which leads investors to believe the economy is still struggling and the market may be primed for a correction.

Unemployment Rate Vs. Actual Jobs Growth

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December’s labor statistics were released this month, finishing off 2013 with an unemployment rate of 6.7%, the lowest since before the financial crisis of 2008 that rocked the economy into a long and painful recession. Now, almost six years later, many are ready to finally believe America is back on track and growing strong. However, before we settle in on this thought that the recession now only lives in the history books, we might want to reconsider the validity of this number that has earned the official title- “The Unemployment Rate.”

Unfortunately, when looked at more closely, the national Unemployment Rate seems more like propaganda rather than a reliable measurement, and there is no better time in recent history that shows this than now. So let’s take a deeper look at the numbers that came out of December’s jobs report.

Along with the Unemployment Rate, the number of jobs gained in America for December was also released. Economists across the board were expecting a hefty 193,000 jobs to be added. Instead, we added a measly 74,000 jobs, making it the weakest month for jobs since January of 2011, yet the best month for unemployment since 2008…

Now, the question becomes, why the distinct contrast between unemployment improvement reported along with a very weak jobs growth?

It all has to do with the way the “Unemployment Rate” is calculated. Although many are led to believe that our country now has only 6.7% of its citizens unemployed, that is extremely far from the truth.

The Unemployment Rate only considers someone unemployed if they are without a job and have been actively looking for a job in the past 4 weeks. If they do not meet the standards of “actively looking” the Bureau of Labor Statistics determines that they have been discouraged from trying to find work and removes them from the unemployment calculation, even though they are still….UNEMPLOYED!

So let’s look at the unemployment numbers again with this in mind.

We were told that 74,000 jobs were added in December. But what you are not hearing is that 347,000 people have been removed from unemployment calculations because they have been labeled as “discouraged workers.” —discouraged? That may be, but they’re still UNEMPLOYED!

Last month there were 273,000 more people giving up on gaining employment in America than there were people actually finding jobs. So instead of an improving job market, as last month’s improved Unemployment Rate of 6.7% would suggest, real logic would show that the opposite is true.

A better picture of America’s job market can be painted with other numbers, like the participation rate. This number measures the percentage of the working aged citizens (15-64) who are either gainfully employed or still hopeful and actively looking for work. Last month’s participation rate of just 62.8% is the lowest we’ve seen in 35 years. Although the reduced unemployment rate of 6.7% gives the impression the job market is improving, the participation rate shows that our country hasn’t been this discouraged about the job market since the 1970s.

Another statistic to look at is the employment-to-population ratio, which provides the simple measurement of the percentage of working-aged citizens that are gainfully employed. According to this measurement, 41.4%, or 102 million of working aged citizens are not gainfully employed— otherwise known as UNEMPLOYED. That is a far stretch from the 6.7%, or 16.5 million that are counted as unemployed by the official Unemployment Rate.

Of course these numbers can’t be taken too seriously when viewed alone either, because they also have their flaws. For example, the employment-to-population ratio doesn’t take into consideration the large number of working aged citizens that are enrolled in school full-time and thus are not available for gainful employment.

The true status of unemployment in America lies somewhere hidden in all of these numbers. The purpose of this article is not to provide some magical percentage that simplifies the job market in America, but rather suggest that such a number simply doesn’t exist. To really get an idea of America’s employment status, it’s going to take a lot more than just waiting for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to publish a number that is accompanied by the title “Unemployment Rate.”

Market Watch: Stocks Pickup Following Big Bank Growth

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But investors aren’t wiping the 2014 sweat from their foreheads just yet. December’s jobs data delivered an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate but was dwarfed by the even less expected weak number of jobs gained in December.

The Dow Jones finished at 16,483.26 (+0.67%)

The S&P 500  finished at 1,848.39 (0.52%)

The Nasdaq finished at 4,214.88 (0.76%)

Economists were expecting the economy would add 193,000 jobs in December, an expectation that fell wildly short when data showed that the economy only produced 74,000 jobs last month. The drastic contrast of a weak jobs growth versus a lowered unemployment rate sheds light on the often discredited method in which the government measures unemployment. A lowered unemployment rate, in this case, means a large number of the population that is out of work recently gave up trying to find work, thus dropping them from the calculations that create the unemployment rate. This paints a picture an economy continuing to struggle, as a troubled labor force is the core ingredient to a recession.

All of this news surrounding the jobs status of our economy points back to the continued uncertainty of the Federal Reserve and how it will find its way out of the stimulus program that has been supporting the stock market since 2008. The Federal Reserve has already announced that it intends to begin pulling back from the stimulus spending starting this month and continue pulling back throughout the year. The unseen consequences of this pullback, coupled with a troubled labor force, creates the kind of uncertainty that can really turn stomachs when the market is reaching peaks like those seen in 2000 and 2008.

Fmr Fed Manager Andrew Huszar returns to The Crash Proof Retirement Show®

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In this follow-up interview, Phil Cannella speaks with former Federal Reserve finance manager, Andrew Huszar, on how investors should react to the Fed tapering QE3 to $75 billion per month.

[Watch the first interview with Andrew HERE!]

Andrew Huszar is a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School. Follow Professor Huszar on Twitter: @andrewhuszar

Market Watch: Stocks Show Volatility in Response to Jobs Report

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Unemployment fell to 6.7% from 7% today. Great news? Apparently not…

The new “unemployment rate” was coupled by a jobs report that fell very short of the economists expectations. The economy only added 74,000 jobs in December when economists were predicting 193,000.

So why the extreme contrast in data?

The unemployment rate is measured by the amount of working aged citizens actively searching for a job. After a certain length of unemployment, citizens are dropped from the unemployment measurement. This number does not account for the countless who have been unemployed for a long period of time or have given up on trying to find work.

The three major indices danced around the red and black throughout the day, finishing mixed to end the week.

 

The Dow Jones finished at 16,436.73 (+0.05%)

The S&P 500  finished at 1,842.37 (0.23%)

The Nasdaq finished at 4,174.67 (0.44%)

Stocks continue into 2014 with a theme of hesitation. It seems as though investors are happy with the 2013 bull market run, but cautious to see if it is sustainable for another year, especially as concern over the ending of Quantitative Easing grows.

Former Fed Manager Andrew Huszar on The Crash Proof Retirement Show®

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Phil Cannella interviews former Federal Reserve finance manager, Andrew Huszar, on why he, after becoming an integral part of the creation of Quantitative Easing, wrote an Op-Ed in The Wall Street Journal that began with the words, “I can only say: I’m sorry, America.”

[Watch the follow-up interview with Professor Huszar HERE!]

Andrew Huszar is a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School. Follow Professor Huszar on Twitter: @andrewhuszar

Market Watch: 2014 Off to a Bearish Start

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Wall Street continued to stay true to the 2014 theme as stocks ended the first week of trading down and not nearly as bullish as 2013,

Again, it may be too quick to start speculating on the psyche of investors just yet, as it understood that trading volume is low due to the holiday break as well as the monstrous snow storm that hit the north east at the end of the week.

 

The Dow Jones finished at 16,469.99 (+0.17%)

The S&P 500  finished at 1,831.37 (-0.03%)

The Nasdaq finished at 4,131.91 (-0.27%)

Starting Monday, we can start taking the trading numbers seriously as investors should be back in the full swing of things and ready to reveal what the consensus is regarding the trust in the stock market.

One of the most anticipated events tied to the market is set to take place this month, as the Federal Reserve announced last week that it intends to pull back on the stimulus program that has been driving the markets for the past few years. On top of that, Ben Bernanke is set to leave office in less than a month, adding more uncertainty in the mind of investors as they enter 2014.

Stay updated on our Market Watch  series as we keep our finger on the pulse of what we can expect in 2014.

France Issues 75% Tax Policy- Is US next?

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This week, France set a precedent for governments around the globe when it approved a new law that will levy a 75% tax on French companies that are paying employees €1 million or more in annual salaries. The new tax is widely understood to be symbolic, as a message to French citizens that something needs to be done to fix the national budget deficit, and it is the rich who have been targeted as major contributors in that effort.

The proposed 75% tax was originally designed to tax individuals that were making an excess of 1 million euros. However, after much backlash and a dismissal of the bill’s constitutionality, the bill was altered to target companies that are paying these high salaries, rather than the individuals earning them. The message behind this tax is one of “economic fairness.” Supporters of the tax hope that it will discourage companies from paying individuals excessively high salaries and will encourage a more balanced wealth distribution among French workers. In theory, if the average salary was higher, the average taxpayer would be contributing more to the staggering national debt crisis the country faces.

A 75% tax levy may seem like an extreme case that is likely isolated to France, a nation that has had its share of economic struggles in recent years, but it is not. The truth of the matter is that France is not alone in facing a major budget deficit and they are also not alone when it comes to using aggressive tax policy as a means to solve their problems.

Anyone who has kept a mild focus on national finances knows that the United States has been facing a budget crisis for years, and has yet to make any real moves towards solving the problem. In fact, many experts argue that our nation’s leaders are only making the problem worse as they continue to procrastinate by increasing the debt ceiling and allowing our deficit to increase annually by nearly $1 trillion in recent years.

Anyone who has kept a moderate tally on the changes in tax policy in the United States can recall that in our not-so-distant history the federal income tax on Americans was as high as 94%. The Individual Income Tax Act of 1944 levied the highest taxes in U.S. history as a response to an overwhelming national debt following World War II.

Putting the pieces together.

The United States, along with many other governments around the globe, are currently in very similar debt crises as France.  The United States has proven it is no stranger to using extreme tax policy as a solution. The spreading concern following the news of the controversial tax policy in France is whether or not it is laying the path for our political leaders to follow suit and bring on an era of increasing taxes.

Market Watch: First Day of the Last Week Ends Flat

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As expected, trading is off to a boring start for the last week of trading in 2013. All three major indices showed little change on the Monday following Christmas, as many offices that move the markets are somewhat vacant due to staff taking off for the holidays. A lack of economic news that may have implications on the market was also a contributor to why there wasn’t much action on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones finished at 16,501.25 (+0.14%)

The S&P 500  finished at 1,841.09 (-0.02%)

The Nasdaq finished at 4,154.20 (-0.16%)

2013 is shaping up to be one of the best years in the history of the stock market, as investors poured record breaking billions into the stock market driving it into all-time highs. The question going into 2014, however, is will investors continue to indulge in this high or will they slowdown in caution from the memories of what followed the last two market peaks of 2000 and again in 2008…

Market Watch: 2013 Bull is Finding New Legs to Run On

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Investors embraced this week in the same fashion they have been embracing 2013, stocks continued to rally. The difference that sets this week apart from most of 2013 rallying is the motivation that is driving higher investment volume. This week, markets are going up on reaction to good economic news, something that strays away from the theme of most of 2013’s market climb.

The Nadaq, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones all finished the day up.

The Dow Jones finished at 16,025.23 (+0.03%)

The S&P 500  finished at 1,808.37 (+0.18%)

The Nasdaq finished at 4,068.75 (+0.15%)

For most of 2013, investors have responded negatively to good economic news, as it was widely assumed that reports of a good economy would result in the ending of Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve stimulus plan that has been pumping $85 billion a month into the market.

However, this week is different. Either investors no longer believe that the Fed is ready to end Quatitative Easing, or they are finally ready to believe the economy can support the high share prices that the recent bull market has produced.

The positive news cited for today’s rally is the better-than-ecpected jobs report from Friday, showing unemployment has lowered to 7%. There are also some notable mergers on Wall Street which are typically appetizing to investors.

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